报告主题：Product deterioration based demand forecasting and service supply model for MRO service chain

时间：2024年4月19日13:00-13:45

地点：上川路校区二教105/腾讯会议 会议号：517 4242 8784  密码：6666

报告人：李 玲

报告内容简介：

As one kind of Product Service Supply Chains, maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) service chain manages the physical industrial products and the related MRO services, and performs MRO service supply activities depending on demand planning and operational measures. The spare part and service demands in MRO service chain is typically uncertain because of product deterioration and random failure. The existing works mainly focus on providing the best possible modelling of demand characteristics (such as price, service level and stock level) without aiming at demand generation process itself. We try to leverage the stochastic process based product deterioration model to characterize the generation of such uncertain demands, and then develop a predictive and pro-active service policy. In our model, geometric process is combined with Gamma process, and stochastic monotonicity of geometric process is utilized to quantify product’s accelerated deterioration. Based on the developed accelerated deterioration model, the uncertain demands in MRO service chain can be forecasted, and the analytic expression of two dimensional joint policy involving the scheduled service plan (inspection interval) and the stochastic service plan (replacement time) is derived. Model demonstration on MRO service management of continuous caster (CC) illustrates the feasibility and practicality of the proposed method.

主讲人简介：

李玲，教授，上海立信会计金融学院专任教师，研究方向为服务计算、系统工程决策优化等，在《计算机学报》、《Transactions on Engineering Management》、《Applied Mathematical Modelling》等国内外学术期刊发表论文二十余篇，主持或参与完成国家级科研项目三项、省部级科研项目五项。